Биткоин на грани перезагрузки: капитуляция краткосрочных инвесторов и новый взгляд на рынок English translation: Bitcoin on the brink of reset: the capitulation of short-term investors and a fresh perspective on the market

Researchers from the analytical firm Glassnode have suggested the possibility of a «market reset» given the low values of the NUPL indicator in relation to short-term holders of Bitcoin who have held the cryptocurrency for less than 155 days.

The indicator has fallen into the «loss zone,» indicating «tension among recent buyers.»

«Historically, the capitulation of short-term investors has coincided with phases of market reset and often serves as a foundation for new accumulation waves,» the specialists explained.

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost believes that the correction is nearing its end. According to his observations, when the fear and greed index falls below 35, the market often finds itself at a local bottom.

On September 28, the popular market sentiment indicator dropped to 37, and shortly before that, it had fallen to 28. By the time of publication, the metric had recovered to neutral values around 50.

According to Darkfost, the aforementioned scenario has «played out multiple times» in the current cycle.

«If there is another decline that leads short-term holders into losses, and the index drops below 25, I will readily increase my Bitcoin position as part of a long-term strategy,» emphasized the researcher.

The analyst also noted that 36% of the supply of digital gold from this group of investors remains profitable:

«The value may seem modest. However, in this cycle, every correction has been accompanied by an almost complete wipeout of short-term holder profits, with the indicator consistently dropping below 5%.»

Darkfost added that during such periods, digital gold is typically traded below the realized price of short-term holders, which at the time of publication is approximately $112,100.

«This leaves room for a new decline that could push almost all of them into losses,» the expert emphasized.

Conversely, when nearly the entire volume of Bitcoin held by short-term holders is «in profit,» the market is often close to a local maximum. This is supported by the increase in realized profits among short-term holders, noted the technical analyst.

CryptoQuant author Axel Adler underscored that the market is evolving, so we shouldn’t expect exact repetitions of past patterns.

The expert outlined five stages of the cryptocurrency industry’s evolution:

«Just HODL,» was the analyst’s advice.

It’s worth recalling that experts from 21st Capital have forecasted Bitcoin to rise to $200,000 after breaking through a key resistance level at $130,000.