Прогноз: Разрастающийся спрос на Ethereum и снижение ставок ФРС предвещают новый альтсезон Translation: Forecast: Growing Demand for Ethereum and Fed Rate Cut Signal a New Alt Season

Current market conditions suggest that a comprehensive altcoin season may be on the horizon, with a forecast by Coinbase Institutional indicating a potential start in September.

The Bitcoin dominance index fell from 65% in May to 59% by August. Experts view this decline as an early indicator of capital shifting towards altcoins.

Analysts have observed a divergence in metrics. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index hovers around 40 points, while the threshold value is 75. Nevertheless, the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies surged by 50% since early July, reaching $1.4 trillion on August 12.

This divergence has been attributed to the high demand for Ethereum from significant players.

Experts disagree with the notion that the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Fed in September will mark a local peak for the crypto market. They believe that policy easing could, in fact, attract retail investors.

A record high of over $7 trillion is currently held in U.S. money market fund accounts. An expected decrease in Fed interest rates may diminish their appeal, prompting a portion of that capital to flow into riskier assets, including digital currencies.

Analysts also noted that cryptocurrency liquidity is beginning to recover after a six-month downturn, aided by the increase in stablecoin issuance alongside improved regulatory clarity.

The growing interest in the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization from institutional players has become a key market driver. Demand is being bolstered by corporate treasury allocations (DATs) and narratives surrounding stablecoins and RWAs.

For instance, Bitmine Immersion Technologies has acquired 1.15 million ETH. Currently, major corporate holders control approximately 2.95 million ETH, which represents over 2% of the total asset supply.

Amidst the Ethereum rally, associated high-beta tokens such as ARB, ENA, LDO, and OP have surged, with LDO experiencing a notable increase of 58% over the month.

The recent success of Lido was influenced by a statement from the SEC, wherein officials indicated that liquid staking tokens do not qualify as securities if the services primarily perform technical functions and distribute rewards in full. Analysts emphasized that this is merely the regulator’s current stance, which may evolve in the future.

At the time of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 45 out of 100.

It is worth noting that Bitfinex analysts believe that the weak recovery of altcoins following the correction of the leading cryptocurrency raises doubts about the continuation of the altcoin season.