Ожидание снижения ставки ФРС угрожает прибыли Circle: аналитик называет шокированные цифры Translation: Headline: Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut Threatens Circles Profit: Analyst Reveals Shocking Figures

The stablecoin issuer USDC, Circle, may face significant pressure if the Federal Reserve decides to lower its key interest rate following September’s meeting. This insight was shared by an investor from Dragonfly using the alias Omar.

The primary revenue stream for the company comes from interest on U.S. Treasury bonds that back its stablecoin. A reduction in the Fed’s key rate would lead to decreased yields on these assets, directly impacting profits.

Nearly 93% of market participants anticipate easing from the regulator.

Experts estimate that a drop of 100 basis points would reduce Circle’s annual income by $618 million, with gross profit decreasing by $303 million.

Moreover, such a decline could boost the company’s stock price by 50%, despite lower profits. To offset these losses, the issuer would need to increase USDC issuance by $28 billion, which represents 44% of the current volume standing at $64 billion.

Analyst MartyParty speculated that Circle announced the launch of its own Arc blockchain in preparation for a potential decline in profits. This would allow the issuer to «monetize transactions.» Currently, the company’s stablecoin operates on networks of other crypto projects like Ethereum and TRON, which receive transaction fees rather than Circle.

The company also announced the launch of its payment system, Circle Payments Network (CPN).

On August 15, it was revealed that the issuer would issue 10 million shares on the secondary market priced at $130 each—four times higher than the price during its initial public offering (IPO) in June, as reported by CoinDesk.

Recall that in July, Circle submitted an application for a trust bank license in the United States.