95% биткоина в обращении: пора задуматься о будущем цифрового золота Headline: 95% of Bitcoin in Circulation: Time to Contemplate the Future of Digital Gold

On November 17, the total amount of mined coins surpassed 19.95 million BTC, reaching 95% of the programmed limit of 21 million BTC set by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin issuance is slowing down with each halving event — miners have less than 1.05 million BTC left to extract. This halving occurs every four years, halving the block reward.

Following the latest halving in April 2024, the reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Now, cryptocurrency miners are producing approximately 450 BTC per day, as opposed to 900 BTC previously.

The next reward reduction is anticipated in April 2028.

While the majority of coins are already in circulation, the remaining 5% will be mined gradually — taking around 115 years until 2140.

This phenomenon is not only a result of a mathematical model but also part of the longer-term security architecture of the digital gold network. As the block subsidy approaches zero, Bitcoin will gradually transition to an economy where user fees play a critical role, incentivizing miners to maintain the hash rate and thus secure the blockchain against attacks.

This structural transformation is already evident in the mining metrics. Its difficulty is at historical highs, recently reaching 152.27 T during the last recalibration.

The increase in computational power is putting pressure on the industry: miners must upgrade their equipment, optimize costs, and diversify their operations.

Many hosting providers and mining firms, in particular, are pivoting towards infrastructure support for artificial intelligence.

Reaching the milestone of 95% mined coins invites reflection on the future of the first cryptocurrency. On one hand, the network is «aging,» and issuance is significantly slowing down. On the other hand, this programmed scarcity is what underpins Bitcoin’s value.

Alex Petrov, CIO of Hyperfusion, noted that the first cryptocurrency is «transitioning from youth to maturity.»

He stated that Nakamoto’s brilliance lies in having anticipated this transition. After 2140, when miners extract the last bitcoin, transaction fees will become the sole means of funding their operations.

The blockchain of digital gold will reach full maturity: transaction fees will completely replace the block reward and will ensure the system’s security for decades.

Discussing the impact on price, Petrov emphasized that the selling pressure from cryptocurrency miners no longer dictates its rate.

«Today, miners produce about 450-470 BTC daily. In comparison, the daily trading volume on major centralized exchanges is in the billions of dollars. The volume of new issuance accounts for only 0.02-0.04% of daily trading turnover, which is negligible in terms of influencing the price,» he added.

Mike Lvov, the marketing director at EVEDEX, is confident that the current stage only reinforces the strength of the digital gold model. He remarked that the increasing percentage of mined coins does not diminish the asset’s relevance but, rather, underscores its scarcity amidst historically rising demand.

This view is echoed by global economist Thomas Perfumo from Kraken. He highlighted that predictable issuance and programmed scarcity set the first cryptocurrency apart from traditional currency systems.

«This unique combination of functionality as a global settlement protocol with the reliability of scarcity positions Bitcoin as a diversification tool, a natural hedge against the devaluation of fiat money, and a structural component of modern portfolios,» the expert explained in a conversation with The Block.

He also asserted that the current issuance level underscores the network’s resilience and its ability to maintain value in the long run.

Marcin Kazmerchak from RedStone viewed the achievement of 95% mined coins as an indicator of the blockchain’s maturity:

«We are transitioning from a growth asset to one with a fixed long-term scarcity. This is significant for institutional adoption and the scaling of infrastructure. The key point is not the figure of 95%, but the network’s ability to withstand future pressures and uphold its economic model.»

There is a notion that limiting new supply should drive the value of each coin higher as demand rises against a dwindling supply. However, experts regard this milestone more as a symbolic event rather than a direct catalyst for Bitcoin prices.

Senior analyst Jake Kennis from Nansen questioned such an impact on the market, suggesting that reaching this new historical level merely validates Bitcoin’s status as digital gold.

«This highlights the cryptocurrency’s scarcity, but the remaining 5% will take more than 100 years to mine due to halvings. While increasing scarcity may psychologically support prices, this milestone is more important for the overall narrative than as a direct price driver,» the expert clarified.

Lvov added that halving cycles play a more significant role in shaping price patterns than simply the percentage of mined coins.

«The less there is left to mine, the higher the potential price over the long term, but halving cycles continue to adjust the price.»

Kazmerchak shared a similar opinion. As the block reward decreases, miners increasingly depend on transaction fees, creating pressure on less efficient market players and promoting industry optimization. He noted that this transition is a long-term shift from block rewards to fees, not a «sudden driver of price.»

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,100. Over the last 24 hours, its price has dropped by 5.1%, according to CoinGecko.

It’s also worth noting that in November, MARA CEO Fred Thiel predicted tough times for miners, describing cryptocurrency mining as a «zero-sum game.»