«Эра постциклов: K33 предсказывает новую динамику биткоина» Headline: Post-Cycle Era: K33 Predicts a New Dynamics for Bitcoin

The historical patterns that once dictated the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency are now outdated. This assertion comes from K33 analysts.

They believe that the movement of Bitcoin is now influenced by institutional investors and macroeconomic policies rather than the traditionally associated halving patterns.

«The four-year cycle is dead; long live the new king,» stated Vetle Lunde, head of research at the firm.

On October 6, digital gold surpassed its historical peak, reaching over $126,000. Since the beginning of the year, the asset’s price has risen by more than 30%, according to TradingView.

The expert emphasized that the current rally is fundamentally different from past bullish phases, describing it as an antithesis to previous peaks.

A key point is the scale of institutional involvement. In just one week, spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 31,600 BTC, while open interest on the CME increased by 15,000 BTC. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has become a significant part of the global market, noted the analyst.

Lunde acknowledged signs of market overheating but anticipates only short-term consolidation instead of a structural reversal.

«If the peak in 2021 coincided with tightening monetary policy and post-COVID caution, now [Donald Trump] will likely replace [Jerome Powell] with his appointee, who will lower interest rates—it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire without an expansionary policy. An era of abundant liquidity is on the horizon rather than tight austerity. This setup favors scarce assets like Bitcoin,» explained the analyst.

In the last 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has seen a 2% correction. At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $122,600.

Swissblock analysts have observed an increase in selling pressure from short-term holders and referred to the price drop as a «healthy correction.»

«Unlike the panic profit-taking seen at previous peaks, the current wave appears orderly, indicating sustained investor confidence. […] A key signal will be a reduction in selling pressure while maintaining prices above $120,000-121,000—this will confirm a controlled market reset, laying the groundwork for a new growth phase,» emphasized the experts.

Currently, fractal analysis indicates similarities between Bitcoin’s present movement and past cycles, with 1,051 days since the November 2022 low compared to 1,060 days during earlier bullish trends. However, Lunde considers such parallels superficial.

«Fractals are a simplified approach to analyzing the situation,» he remarked.

Rather than relying on historical analogies, K33 employs a system that evaluates six key parameters, including:

Of these, only two signal risks of nearing the cycle’s peak: the ratio of futures to spot market volumes and overbought conditions measured by the RSI. According to Lunde, this is insufficient to enter the «danger zone» typical of peaks.

«The price dynamics of Bitcoin remain healthy, and we do not see any signs suggesting a repeat of the notorious four-year cycle,» concluded the analyst.

It’s worth noting that in September, Matt Hougan, the investment director at Bitwise, confirmed the death of cycles in the leading cryptocurrency. Similarly, Ki Eun Joo, CEO of CryptoQuant, shares this viewpoint.