Эксперт предсказывает возможность падения биткоина на 70% и анализирует рыночные тенденции Expert predicts a potential 70% drop in Bitcoin and analyzes market trends.

The first cryptocurrency may experience a decline of up to 70% during the next bear market phase, according to Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto.

He noted that historical data points to a potential correction, as previous cycles saw the price of digital gold drop by 94%, 87%, and 77% from its peak.

«I would suggest that a 70% drop from the all-time high Bitcoin reaches is plausible. Does it have to happen? No, but history teaches us to consider that possibility,» Cowen stated.

The latest all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was reached at $124,128 on August 14. As of the time of writing, the asset is trading around $116,900.

Researcher Axel Adler Jr. has assessed the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high (ATH) in the next two weeks at 70%. He pointed to the balanced sentiments among investors.

According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders is hovering around zero, with the cryptocurrency trading above the realized value for this market participant group. This situation indicates a consolidation phase lasting one to two weeks before a «new breakout toward the ATH.»

The growth potential is further confirmed by derivative data. An analyst highlighted that Bitcoin futures are trading consistently at a premium to the spot price. The seven-day average exceeds the 30-day average, a pattern generally associated with bullish trends.

«The baseline scenario (~70%) for the next two weeks is a stepwise upward trend or sideways movement. If a cluster of green trend confirmation signals emerges in the coming days, it would indicate an influx of new long positions and increase the likelihood of achieving a new all-time high,» wrote Adler Jr.

According to Glassnode, the heatmap for Bitcoin shows a concentration of supply around $117,000, which analysts have identified as a key resistance zone.

Breaking through this level would signal further growth and potentially new highs, experts noted. Otherwise, Bitcoin may face prolonged consolidation or compression.

Glassnode also indicated positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, underlining institutional demand as a key market support factor.

As of September 18, these instruments attracted $163 million, bringing the total investment over four trading sessions to $664 million. Last week, the overall inflow exceeded $2.3 billion, the highest since mid-July.

CryptoQuant analysts observed a rise in reserves of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Coinbase exchange. This metric has reached $112 billion for the first time in four years.

«In previous cycles, increases in reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase often coincided with rising market liquidity and bullish price momentum,» experts emphasized.

It is worth noting that macro analyst Luke Gromen explained the philosophy of Bitcoin as digital gold, highlighting the cryptocurrency’s key advantage — a lack of yield.