Эксперт предостерегает о риске падения биткоина на 70% в грядущей медвежьей фазе Headline: Expert warns of a 70% risk drop in Bitcoin during the upcoming bear phase

The original cryptocurrency may face a decline of up to 70% during the upcoming bearish phase of the market. This opinion was shared by Benjamin Cowen, the founder of ITC Crypto.

He stated that historical data suggests a potential correction. In previous cycles, the price of digital gold dropped by 94%, 87%, and 77% from its peak.

«I would say there’s a possibility of a 70% drop from whatever absolute peak Bitcoin reaches. Is this bound to happen? No, but the lessons of history suggest that we should take this probability into account,» Cowen remarked.

The last historical peak of the leading cryptocurrency was recorded at $124,128 on August 14. As of the time of writing, the asset is trading around $116,900.

Researcher Axel Adler Jr. assessed the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high (ATH) in the next two weeks at 70%. He pointed to balanced sentiments among investors.

According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders is hovering around zero. In this context, the cryptocurrency is trading above the realized value for this group of market participants. This situation indicates a consolidation phase lasting one or two weeks before a «new breakthrough to ATH.»

The growth potential is supported by derivatives data. The analyst underscored that Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium to the spot price. The seven-day basis exceeds the 30-day one—a structure typically associated with bullish trends.

«The base scenario (~70%) for the next two weeks is a stepwise upward trend or sideways movement. If in the next few days a cluster of green trend confirmation signals appears, it will indicate an influx of new long positions and increase the likelihood of reaching a new historical maximum,» Adler Jr. wrote.

According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin heatmap reveals a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts labeled this level as a key resistance zone.

Breaking through this mark would signal further growth and potentially new highs, experts noted. Otherwise, Bitcoin faces prolonged consolidation or compression.

Glassnode also highlighted positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, emphasizing institutional demand as a crucial support factor for the market.

As of September 18, these instruments attracted $163 million, bringing the total investment sum over four trading sessions to $664 million. Last week, total inflows exceeded $2.3 billion—the highest since mid-July.

CryptoQuant analysts noted an increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum reserves on the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange. This indicator reached $112 billion for the first time in four years.

«In previous cycles, an increase in reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase often coincided with rising market liquidity and bullish price momentum,» the experts emphasized.

It’s worth recalling that macro-analyst Luke Gromen explained the philosophy of Bitcoin as digital gold. He stated that the cryptocurrency’s key advantage is the absence of yield.