Эксперт предостерегает инвесторов: биткоин близок к завершению своего роста Translation: Expert warns investors: bitcoin is nearing the end of its growth cycle.

The first cryptocurrency is showing signs of exhaustion in the current market cycle, a trend that many investors seem to overlook, according to Joao Vedson, the founder of the analytical platform Alphractal.

He stated that the SOPR indicator indicates a decline in the profitability of blockchain operations. Meanwhile, institutional players continue to accumulate cryptocurrency at historically high price levels.

«The realized price for short-term holders stands at $111,400, which could become a critical threshold for major investors who were expected to acquire the asset at a lower price,» the expert noted.

The Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin has lagged behind the metrics of 2024. This illustrates a decrease in profit potential while risks remain, making the first cryptocurrency less appealing to institutions. Concurrently, Vedson observed a sharp decline in public interest in digital gold.

«Many market makers are acting accordingly: partially selling Bitcoin and directing stablecoins into altcoins. Even if the asset reaches new all-time highs—which is entirely possible—profitability will remain low, shifting the focus to ‘alternative coins’,» he stated.

The expert reaffirmed his prediction of an impending altcoin season, emphasizing that many cryptocurrencies have stronger fundamentals compared to Bitcoin. Their prices are relatively lower than their peaks, presenting greater growth potential.

On September 11, the altcoin season index reached a peak not seen since late 2024. CoinGlass and Blockchain Center indicators registered 78 points. Amidst a market downturn, these figures had retreated to 65 at the time of writing.

Previously, analysts identified three drivers of the altcoin season.

On September 22, Bitcoin fell to $112,000, while Ethereum dropped to $4,000. All cryptocurrencies in the top 10 by market capitalization displayed negative dynamics.

The daily liquidation volume in the crypto market reached $1.7 billion, and the fear and greed index fell into the ‘fear’ zone, landing at 45.

According to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, the correction is part of a classical market clean-up from excess liquidity.

«Today’s drop is not due to fundamental issues within projects. It represents a classic ‘liquidation’ sell-off in the crypto market, causing altcoins to lose 10% or more. The reason is mass liquidation of high-leverage positions in a low liquidity environment. Such events typically form the market bottom,» he stated.

The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin failed to break through key resistance levels above $116,000, exacerbating the downward trend.

«Given the strong price wicks on altcoins, I’m not convinced the decline has ended. However, we’re already looking for a ‘buy at the lows’ opportunity ahead of a new rally,» van de Poppe remarked.

Trader under the pseudonym Ash Crypto agreed with his conclusions, stating that the market has consolidated in anticipation of a «powerful leap» in the upcoming quarter.

According to the analyst known as Captain Faibik, Bitcoin is bracing for a new wave of sales, potentially falling to the $100,000 mark.

«On the daily timeframe, the ‘rising wedge’ pattern has been broken, and a ‘bear flag’ pattern is now forming,» he indicated.

Pessimism prevails among crypto investors. Users noted that even purchases via ETFs and by major companies are unable to shield Bitcoin from decline.

On September 22, Michael Saylor’s Strategy reported the acquisition of another 850 BTC last week. The company’s cryptocurrency balance has grown to 639,835 coins (~$72 billion).

Sean Young, the chief analyst at MEXC Research, expects Bitcoin to trade within the range of $110,000-$118,000 in the near future. He noted that the market has adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the next decision by the Federal Reserve regarding the key interest rate.

The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 29. According to CME FedWatch, as of the time of writing, 89.8% of market participants anticipate further easing of monetary policy.

Speaking of Ethereum, Young noted that the cryptocurrency continues to see demand from both institutional and retail investors. He identified a key support level at $4,200. If the positive trend persists, the analyst does not rule out a rise to $4,700.

However, if momentum weakens, the asset may revert to the lower boundary of the range.

«The main risks are tied to macroeconomic factors: any unexpected rhetoric from the Federal Reserve or new data on inflation and employment could trigger sharp volatility,» the expert warned.

It is worth mentioning that experts differed in opinions regarding the seasonal growth of digital assets in October.