Эксперты предостерегают от чрезмерного оптимизма: октябрьское ралли под угрозой Translation: Experts warn against excessive optimism: October rally at risk

On September 22, the price of Bitcoin fell to $112,000, resulting in a daily liquidation volume in the cryptocurrency market reaching $1.7 billion. Amid this correction, experts are divided over the seasonal growth of digital assets in October.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed the second month of autumn «in the green» in 10 out of 12 instances, according to CoinGlass. This trend has earned it the informal title of «Uptober.»

In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s value decreased by more than 2.5%. As of the time of writing, the asset is trading at approximately $112,700.

The Fear and Greed Index has slipped into the «fear» zone, dropping to a score of 45.

Some analysts believe that 2025 will not be an exception for the leading cryptocurrency. Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chasse indicated that the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month has increased.

He stated that the easing of monetary policy is already factored into prices, with new liquidity serving as «fuel» for the growth of the crypto market.

An expert known as Sykodelic described the recent drop in prices as expected.

«As I’ve mentioned before, the target is $112,500. Once we achieve this, skeptics will start discussing a market peak again. And as soon as we dispel that gloom, we’ll surge to new highs. This is the powerful final stage that will drive the market towards euphoria: Ethereum will set new records, and altcoins will finally feel a liquidity influx,» he wrote.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that the crypto market will enter a growth phase when the U.S. Treasury replenishes the TGA to its target level of $850 billion. As of September 20, the account balance was $807 billion.

«Once the liquidity recovery is completed, growth will resume,» the expert noted.

Crypto trader CasiTrades holds the view that Bitcoin has reached the peak of its cycle. According to her, on September 18, the leading cryptocurrency broke through the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 at around $117,900. This is one of the most commonly recognized signals for a bearish reversal in the market cycle, she stated.

A key confirmation of a deeper pullback would be a drop below $113,000. CasiTrades emphasized that in that case, the price of digital gold could fall to $96,000 or even $90,000.

«The only thing that could disprove this theory is if Bitcoin breaks through resistance on the RSI and sets new historical highs. However, we are observing all the classic signs that the market is peaking right here,» she added.

On September 20, on-chain analyst known as Reflection pointed out that Bitcoin is repeating a pattern from 2021, when after reaching an all-time high above $69,000, the price sharply dropped to $32,000.

Augustin Fan, head of the analytical department at SignalPlus, noted in a comment to Cointelegraph that any potential spike would likely be weak due to record-low volatility and slowing inflows into ETFs. He also indicated that there is pressure from market participants cashing out on the pullbacks.

In his opinion, long-term investors should exercise patience before aiming for new heights.

Jeff May, the COO of the BTSE exchange, expressed skepticism about the arrival of Uptober due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the absence of a September dip.

«However, if the Fed announces more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, the situation could change,» he added.

It is worth noting that ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen warned about the possibility of a 70% crash in Bitcoin.