Эксперты предостерегают от возможного падения Ethereum в ожидании решения ФРС Translation: Experts Warn of Potential Ethereum Drop Amid Uncertain Fed Decision

The rise of the second-largest cryptocurrency, now priced above $4,700, is driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Analysts have cautioned that if the regulator fails to meet these anticipations, the asset’s value could plummet, according to Cointelegraph.

«The main issue is that market movements are predicated on the assumption of a Fed rate reduction next month,» stated Swyftx’s lead analyst, Pav Hundal.

As of the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,546, six percent away from its historical peak of $4,878, as per CoinGecko.

Market participants assess the likelihood of a rate cut in September at 94.6%.

«It seems like the price is banking on perfection. During such times, one must be particularly cautious,» Hundal added, referencing the influx into Ethereum spot ETFs and stable financing rates.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, also believes that the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency will continue to rise. However, he agrees that an unexpected decision by the Federal Reserve could impact the market. He mentioned that this could «scare liquidity, causing capital to freeze and flows to halt.»

Edwards speculated that Ethereum could «easily double» in price over the coming months if Bitcoin reaches the $150,000 to $200,000 range.

However, not all experts are confident in a rate reduction. Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, pointed out that Fed officials might «dampen» market expectations if they find them unwarranted.

Jeff Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, also views the current monetary policy as «appropriate for now.»

An early Ethereum investor transferred 1,060 ETH (approximately $5.1 million) to the Kraken exchange. According to Arkham, this marks the fourth transaction in the past four days.

Previously, transfers from the address starting with 0x815 to the exchange included 2,000 ETH ($8.6 million), 1,162 ETH ($5.2 million), and 1,121 ETH ($5.2 million). The total deposits for the week reached $24.1 million.

Arkham reports that the wallet still holds 4,657 ETH valued at $21.12 million. Transfers to exchange addresses often indicate an intent to sell assets.

Based on Onchain Lens data, this participant acquired 100,000 ETH during the ICO, spending $31,100 on them.

Today, that amount is valued at $471 million. Analysts noted that the whale still possesses more than 50,000 ETH, spread across multiple wallets.

This isn’t the only early investor shifting assets amid Ethereum’s price increase. According to Lookonchain, on August 11, another ICO participant moved 2,300 ETH (around $9.9 million) to Kraken. They obtained 20,000 ETH for $6,200 during the crowdsale, which is now worth about $94 million. The address still holds 1,623 ETH valued at $7.6 million.

The Ethereum token sale took place from July to September 2014, raising around $18.3 million by selling over 60 million ETH at an average price of $0.31.

The volume of ETH queued for withdrawal from Ethereum staking has reached 671,900 ETH (approximately $3.1 billion), with applications piling up during the summer price rally.

The increase in requests has lengthened the waiting time from nine to about 12 days. In contrast, the waiting time to enter staking is significantly shorter—105,620 ETH (around $480 million).

An analyst under the pseudonym Ignas cited several reasons for the queue’s growth.

One reason is the closure of leveraged positions. Traders who received liquid staking tokens (LST) like stETH and borrowed against them are now reducing risks due to the rising cost of borrowing.

Another reason is arbitrage and concerns about a potential decoupling of LST from the ETH price. A decrease in the stETH price relative to ETH may have prompted market participants to withdraw assets from staking for token rotation and profit-taking from the spread. Ignas noted that Lido, EthFi, and Coinbase are among the largest sources of withdrawn coins.

The expert also suggested that some validators are changing strategies in anticipation of new staking products in the U.S. In May, the Securities and Exchange Commission clarified that the staking process does not violate securities regulations.

Finally, as Ethereum approaches historical highs, some validators may simply be locking in profits.

It’s worth noting that inflows into Ethereum-based ETFs have surpassed the issuance of new coins following The Merge. U.S. spot exchange-traded funds attracted $2.45 billion over the month, equivalent to around 500,000 ETH.