Экономист предсказывает 50% вероятность роста биткоина до $140 000 благодаря историческим данным Translation: Economist predicts 50% chance of Bitcoin rising to $140,000 based on historical data

Based on historical data, economist Timothy Peterson has estimated a 50% likelihood that the price of the leading cryptocurrency will rise above $140,000 in October.

This forecast is derived from simulations utilizing market metrics dating back to 2015. Peterson emphasized that his calculations stem from «hundreds of simulations using real data rather than human emotions.» The projected increase to $140,000 aligns with a monthly return of 20%, which is close to October’s historical average.

As of the writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at approximately $121,600. Over the past day, the asset has decreased by 1.7%, according to CoinGecko.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler noted an influx of new buyers.

According to his data, in the last quarter, the supply of digital gold held by short-term holders increased by 559,000 BTC, rising from 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC.

Glassnode highlighted weak support in the $121,000 to $120,000 range. The critical level is around $117,000, where 190,000 BTC were last purchased. A decline to this area may draw demand.

After breaking through $117,000, over 95% of the circulating Bitcoin supply ended up in profit. This is considered a sign of an euphoria phase, which often leads to profit-taking and increases risk, according to experts.

Selling pressure in the derivatives market has significantly decreased, as stated by CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym Darkfost. The Net Taker Volume indicator, which compares buying and selling market order volumes, has shifted from an extremely negative zone (-$400 million) to neutral.

«This indicates a change in dominance between buying and selling pressure,» the expert noted.

He emphasized that a similar trend was observed during the April correction, after which the market received notable support from derivatives.

The net inflow into Bitcoin-based exchange instruments over the week was $3.55 billion, with total assets under management reaching $195.2 billion. In comparison, silver-backed products hold about $40 billion.

Corporations continue to accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The Brazilian company OranjeBTC, which holds 3,675 BTC valued at over $445 million, has commenced trading on the stock exchange.

Reserves of digital gold on trading platforms have fallen to 2.38 million BTC, the lowest level in the past five years. The decrease in available supply indicates ongoing accumulation of the asset.

Although short-term consolidation is possible, the resilience of the derivatives market and ongoing institutional adoption support the potential for further growth, experts concluded.

It is noteworthy that Darkfost reported the return of retail investors to the market amid the leading cryptocurrency’s surge to a new all-time high.