ФРС неожиданно завершила QT: Как шатдаун и проблемы ликвидности повлияли на финансовые рынки Translation: Fed Unexpectedly Ends QT: How the Shutdown and Liquidity Issues Impacted Financial Markets

In October, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points and announced the end of its quantitative tightening (QT) program effective December 1st. However, the reported «victory over inflation» was actually a reluctant pivot due to increasing issues within the financial system, as noted by Binance Research.

Analysts pointed out that a significant factor in this decision was the U.S. government shutdown, which caused the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to exceed $1 trillion. This effectively siphoned off about $700 billion in liquidity from the banking system, comparable to the impact of several rate hikes.

Signs of systemic stress became apparent with a sharp increase in the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the Interest on Reserves Balances (IORB), along with record usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF)—an emergency financing tool.

On October 31, the volume of requests to the SRF reached an unprecedented $50.35 billion, indicating a shortage of private financing.

Researchers also pointed out structural problems within the economy. Despite the relative stability of the unemployment rate (3.8%), the private sector is losing jobs, with the increase in employment driven primarily by the government sector.

Household debt reached a historic $18.7 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, with delinquencies on consumer loans climbing to multiyear highs.

For the cryptocurrency market, the end of QT signifies the removal of the primary macroeconomic barrier of the past two years. Experts anticipate that the withdrawal of funds from the TGA post-shutdown will create a «catapult effect,» infusing the markets with liquidity.

By the first quarter of 2026, analysts project that the Fed will adopt a «QE-Lite» policy, purchasing short-term Treasury bills to replenish bank reserves. This, combined with a strengthened narrative of Bitcoin as an «anti-fragile» asset amidst the vulnerabilities of traditional finance (TradFi), could drive a new wave of growth in cryptocurrencies.

Among the major risks, researchers highlighted the possibility of stagflation or a «hard landing» for the economy. They evaluated the current macro situation as a «shift from headwinds to tailwinds» for risk assets such as digital gold.

It’s worth noting that analysts from XWIN Research outlined the risks of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 due to the Fed’s hawkish decisions.