Скепсис аналитиков: октябрьские надежды на крипторынке под давлением падения биткоина Translation: Skepticism Among Analysts: October Hopes for the Crypto Market Under Pressure from Bitcoins Decline

On September 22, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $112,000, leading to a daily liquidation volume in the crypto market reaching $1.7 billion. Amid this correction, experts have differing opinions regarding the potential seasonal rise of digital assets in October.

Since 2013, the leading cryptocurrency has ended the second month of fall in the green in 10 out of 12 instances, according to CoinGlass. This trend has informally been dubbed «Uptober.»

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s value has decreased by more than 2.5%. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $112,700.

The Fear and Greed Index has fallen into the «fear» zone, landing at a score of 45.

Some analysts believe that 2025 will not be an exception for the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chasse pointed out the increased likelihood of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.

He mentioned that the easing of monetary policy has already been factored into prices, and new liquidity would serve as «fuel» for the growth of the crypto market.

An expert known as Sykodelic stated that the recent price decline was anticipated.

«As I mentioned, the target is $112,500. Once we reach that level, skeptics will start talking about a market peak again. Once we overcome that negativity, we will surge to new highs. This will kickstart the powerful final phase that will lead the market to euphoria: Ethereum will set new records, and altcoins will finally feel an influx of liquidity,» he wrote.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed that the crypto market would shift into growth mode once the U.S. Treasury replenishes the Treasury General Account (TGA) to its target level of $850 billion. On September 20, the account’s balance was $807 billion.

«Once the liquidity restoration is completed, growth will resume,» noted the expert.

Crypto trader CasiTrades believes that Bitcoin has reached the cycle’s peak. She stated that on September 18, the first cryptocurrency broke the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $117,900, which is a common bearish reversal point in market cycles.

A significant confirmation of a deeper pullback would be a break below $113,000. CasiTrades emphasized that in such a scenario, the price of the digital gold could drop to $96,000 or even $90,000.

«The only thing that would disprove this theory is if Bitcoin breaks through resistance on the RSI and sets new historical highs. However, we see all the classic signs indicating that the market is peaking right here,» she added.

On September 20, on-chain analyst Reflection pointed out the first cryptocurrency is repeating a pattern from 2021 when, after reaching an all-time high (ATH) above $69,000, the asset’s price plummeted to $32,000.

Augustin Fan, head of the analytics department at SignalPlus, noted in a comment to Cointelegraph that any potential surge would likely be weak due to record-low volatility and a slowdown in ETF inflows. He also highlighted the pressure from market participants who are taking profits during the decline.

In his view, long-term investors should remain patient before targeting new highs.

Jeff May, the COO of BTSE exchange, expressed doubt about the onset of Uptober due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the absence of a September downturn.

«However, if the Federal Reserve announces more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, the situation could change,» he added.

Lastly, ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen warned of a potential 70% collapse in Bitcoin’s price.