Рынок прогнозов в ожидании рекордов: Kalshi и Polymarket в октябре обработали $4,5 млрд Translation: Prediction market on track for records: Kalshi and Polymarket processed $4.5 billion in October

Against the backdrop of increasing institutional endorsement, the total monthly trading volume on the prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket reached $4.5 billion. This marks the second-highest figure in history, as reported by Artemis.

The previous record was set in November 2024 during the U.S. presidential elections, when the excitement surrounding the prediction markets pushed the figure to $4.7 billion.

In September, Kalshi captured a significant portion of the market, holding 66.59% compared to Polymarket’s 33.41%. This shift was aided by a partnership with Robinhood, allowing users to trade directly through the broker’s interface.

Earlier, the prediction platform attracted $300 million during its Series D funding round, led by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, raising Kalshi’s valuation to $5 billion.

Polymarket also received $2 billion from its parent company, the NYSE’s Intercontinental Exchange, bringing the platform’s valuation to $9 billion. Founder Shane Coplan revealed two previously undisclosed funding rounds, including one for $150 million led by Founders Fund.

Norwegian authorities have initiated an investigation into Polymarket following a suspicious surge in activity before the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Prize winner, according to Bloomberg.

According to the publication, several accounts made large bets on Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado just hours before the official results, collectively earning approximately $90,000.

Christian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, confirmed that officials are investigating a potential information leak.

«We are looking into whether someone had access to confidential data and profited from it,» he stated.

Polymarket has faced similar challenges in the past. In 2022, the CFTC fined the platform $1.4 million for providing services without registration. Two years later, it was reported that the Department of Justice was investigating the project. The case was closed in 2025.

The project is now preparing to enter the U.S. market. Last summer, Polymarket acquired the regulated derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million. Recently, the platform’s creator hinted at the launch of a native token, POLY.

As a reminder, in October, Polymarket added support for Bitcoin for account funding.