Риски падения биткоина: аналитики прогнозируют диапазон $60 000-80 000 из-за решений ФРС Translation: Risks of Bitcoin Decline: Analysts Forecast $60,000-$80,000 Range Due to Fed Decisions

Digital gold might remain within the range of $60,000 to $80,000 until the end of the year if the Federal Reserve decides against lowering the key interest rate in December, according to analysts at XWIN Research.

Experts described the upcoming meeting of the regulator as one of the most uncertain in recent years. Due to a recent government shutdown, the U.S. was unable to release labor market reports, which deprived the Fed of complete data for making decisions. Amidst this backdrop, the expectation for rate cuts has weakened, and there is no consensus among officials themselves.

Maintaining the current interest rate would indicate low market liquidity and diminished interest in riskier assets. During periods of tight monetary policy, investors typically exhibit less activity in leveraging.

Conversely, cryptocurrency exchanges are currently sitting on record reserves of stablecoins amounting to $72 billion. Analysts noted that a similar situation preceded all major rallies of the first cryptocurrency in 2025, suggesting an existence of pent-up demand.

As a result, the potential for price declines is limited by a substantial volume of stablecoins ready for purchase. However, any further increase is hindered by the macroeconomic situation that prevents this capital from entering the market, XWIN Research concluded.

Ethereum’s price tested a crucial support level around $2,800. Historically, this mark has been a bottom in market cycles, indicating the possibility of recovery. This observation was highlighted by an analyst using the pseudonym MAC_D46035.

He mentioned that the realized price often acts as a support level.

At the time of writing, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading around $3,000.

Additionally, it was noted that in November, Glassnode analysts indicated that the risk of the market transitioning to a bearish phase would arise if the price of the first cryptocurrency stabilized below key on-chain indicators.