Ракетный потенциал биткоина: Аналитики указывают на растущую роль стейблкоинов и ослабление рычагов Translation: Rocketing Bitcoin Potential: Analysts Point to Growing Role of Stablecoins and Easing Leverage

The total market cap of stablecoins in the ecosystem has reached an unprecedented $160 billion, serving as a more accurate gauge of liquidity in the crypto market compared to traditional money supply metrics. This was reported by analysts from XWIN Research Japan.

According to them, investors most commonly compare the performance of digital gold with the global M2 aggregate, which represents the total cash in circulation outside the banking system along with non-cash assets in accounts and deposits held by residents in banks. A sharp increase in this indicator indeed coincided with the bull market of 2020-2021. However, over the past five years, the statistical correlation has averaged around 0.5.

“During periods of monetary tightening, like in 2022-2023, Bitcoin has shown dynamics that are independent of M2. While the money supply shapes the macro environment, it is not a reliable indicator for predicting cryptocurrency prices,” emphasized the experts.

A more precise metric is the total volume of «stablecoins,» which set a historical record in 2025. XWIN Research Japan identified three reasons why this indicator is significant:

“In both the bullish trend of 2021 and the recovery period of 2024-2025, the growth in the volume of ‘stablecoins’ has consistently preceded increases in Bitcoin’s value,” stated the specialists.

The global M2 indicator reflects long-term trends, while the dynamics of stablecoins represent the true momentum of the crypto market, the analysts concluded.

CryptoQuant analysts pointed out several key on-chain indicators that establish a favorable environment for a resurgence in Bitcoin prices. The first and perhaps the most significant signal is the unwinding of leverage.

This occurs when open interest in the futures market falls by more than 12% within a week. Experts assert that this is not a sign of market weakness but rather an indication of its “healing.”

«Weak hands,» which had opened excessive positions, are actively exiting the market, thereby reducing selling pressure.

The potential for a rebound is also indicated by negative funding rates on futures. Current rates suggest that the majority of traders have taken short positions and have a pessimistic outlook.

Historically, such periods represent an optimal entry point—any minor price movement could trigger a short squeeze, fueling a rally.

The price of the leading cryptocurrency has dropped below the average purchase price of short-term holders—a significant number of recently invested participants are facing losses.

In the context of a sustained bullish trend, these levels are viewed by institutional players and long-term holders as favorable zones for accumulation, creating robust buying demand.

Over the past week, the volume of on-chain Bitcoin transfers fell by 20% to $87 billion, according to data from Glassnode.

Daily spot turnover also decreased, dropping to $12.8 billion, indicating that the recovery of the cryptocurrency’s price above $92,000 has not been accompanied by a surge in trading activity.

This trend signals a reduction in investor engagement, which is necessary for further price increases.

November 2025 could prove to be one of the worst months in Bitcoin’s history. Since the beginning of the month, the asset’s price has dropped by over 16%.

Expert Samit Kapoor suggested the possibility of sideways movement in December, as historical data hints at this trend. Almost every “red” November has been followed by a similar December.

Technical analysts are closely observing whether digital gold can close the monthly candle at $93,000. Should it lose price momentum over the weekend of November 29 and 30, further declines may be likely.

“As the month draws to a close, I have identified two crucial levels to watch for this timeframe—$93,401 and $102,437,” noted the specialist known as CrediBull Crypto.

In his view, a close above $93,000 would be a “positive signal,” while one above $102,000 would be considered “incredibly bullish.”

At the time of writing, the digital gold trades near $91,500, reflecting a 0.5% increase over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

Let us recall that analysts at Glassnode identified the obstacles Bitcoin faces on its path toward a new historical high.