Показатели уверенности инвесторов в биткоине падают, предвещая длительную консолидацию Translation: Investors Confidence in Bitcoin Declines, Foretelling Extended Consolidation

A CryptoQuant expert using the handle Crazzyblockk has suggested that the market may be moving into an «extremely bearish» phase. This is indicated by the behavior of investors who have held the leading cryptocurrency for 12 to 18 months.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the realized price for this group, putting their holdings in a state of unrealized loss. Historically, when the price stabilizes below this level, it often turns a typical correction into a structural bearish trend.

The analyst pointed out a concerning accumulation trend. Despite an increase in balances over the past 30 days, the pace of buying has noticeably decreased, signaling a decline in market participants’ confidence as they have ceased to aggressively buy the dips.

Under the current circumstances, the realized price acts as a significant resistance level. When prices attempt to rise, investors aim to break even, creating selling pressure.

Crazzyblockk believes that until the price is firmly established above the baseline value and accumulation resumes, Bitcoin will face consolidation, weak recoveries, and the risk of further declines.

Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the psychological threshold of $80,000. Analysts linked the sharp decline to personnel changes within the Federal Reserve.

Experts at QCP Capital noted that the trigger was the confirmation of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next head of the Fed. Markets interpreted this as a signal for imminent tightening of monetary policy.

Consequences:

According to QCP analysts, the $74,500 level is technically critical, aligning with the lows of 2025.

The options market remains cautious, showing a preference for puts, but there is no panic. The decline in demand for hedging may indicate that investors are starting to position themselves in anticipation of a local bottom.

Analysts highlighted key scenarios:

The $76,000 level serves as important support — the average entry price for major institutional players.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $77,534 (-1.8% over the past day).

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out a fundamental issue — a structural lack of liquidity. He stated that after a surge in stablecoin capitalization to $140 billion (since 2023), the trend reversed in December.

The flow dynamics to exchanges confirm the exit of investors:

Darkfost described this as the capitulation of late market participants. Another CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Arab Chain also warned of a critical moment.

He noted a spike in the volatility indicator (z30) on Binance above the +3 mark. Historically, such levels precede significant price movements — either a sharp breakout upwards or a crash.

Against the backdrop of declining prices, Binance SAFU acquired 1,315 BTC worth $100.7 million.

As a reminder, in January, analysts anticipated further declines in Bitcoin following the drop below $80,000.