Питер Брандт: Снижение биткоина — это игра крупных игроков, а не паника инвесторов Translation: Headline: Peter Brandt: Bitcoins decline is a game of major players, not a panic among investors.

The current drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is attributed to the actions of major market players rather than panic among retail investors, according to technical analyst Peter Brandt.

In his view, the manner in which the price is moving bears all the hallmarks of a «planned sell-off.» Brandt pointed out that the leading cryptocurrency has been setting new local highs and lows for eight consecutive days. He contrasted this situation with the typical liquidation of positions by retail traders.

“I’ve seen this kind of thing hundreds of times over the decades [of working in the markets],” the analyst emphasized.

Brandt added that it is impossible to accurately predict when this pattern will conclude. He also warned that the red lines on his chart are merely for discussing the situation and do not represent guaranteed forecasts.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, expressed an opposing viewpoint. He believes that the markets are signaling a bottom being reached rather than a peak.

The expert provided several arguments:

Van de Poppe described the current moment as ideal for accumulating positions. Among the growth factors, he highlighted the dovish stance of the head of the Federal Reserve, QE, and the impending adoption of the Clarity Act.

Analysts from Binance Research also pointed out the overheating of the American stock market.

The S&P 500 has reached an all-time high amidst a high level of margin debt. The ratio of borrowed funds to the money supply (M2) has approached the crisis levels of 2000 and 2008.

An additional risk is posed by the cryptocurrency market: the total leverage in Bitcoin has risen to 5.8%, significantly exceeding the five-year average of 4.88%.

According to the analysts, a high level of leverage is atypical for the «despair» stage usually experienced at cyclical lows.

Exchange experts warned that a correction in the stock market will inevitably impact digital assets.

Cryptocurrencies are at the «end of the liquidity food chain»: during major sell-offs, investors first offload them to move into cash.

An analyst using the pseudonym CryptoOnchain has detected a troubling signal. On January 29, the smoothed number of transactions (14 SMA) in the Ethereum network reached 1.17 million. The expert opined that such a sharp increase could herald a market collapse.

Historical analysis has revealed a pattern. Similar spikes in network activity occurred at two key turning points:

Traditionally, an increase in on-chain metrics is considered a bullish factor. However, a parabolic surge near price peaks often signals overheating. This typically happens during moments of euphoria or capitulation.

CryptoOnchain linked the current anomaly to the actions of whales and long-term holders who are transferring assets to exchanges to lock in profits.

The situation mirrors the scenarios of 2018 and 2021. Despite macroeconomic differences, the on-chain behavior of participants indicates high risks. The expert warned that traders should exercise caution and wait for confirming signals for a drop in ETH prices.

It should be noted that on February 5, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell to $70,119, the lowest since October 2024. Ethereum followed suit, declining to $2,079.