Перспективы роста крипторынка: аналитики прогнозируют стабильное развитие на фоне новых реалий Translation: Crypto Market Growth Prospects: Analysts Predict Steady Development Amid New Realities

The crypto market, bolstered by treasury companies, has entered a PvP phase, yet it still possesses growth momentum for the fourth quarter, as noted in a report by Coinbase.

«Bitcoin continues to exceed market expectations, directly benefiting from existing macroeconomic tailwinds. Excluding the shock of energy prices (or other inflationary factors), we believe the immediate risk of a change in the current monetary policy stance of the United States is quite low,» states the report’s author, Colin Basco.

Coinbase anticipates a rate decrease by the Fed as early as September 17 and October 29, given the labor market has provided «compelling evidence of weakness.»

Experts believe that support from robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and promising regulatory changes will drive growth in the crypto market through the end of the year.

Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) are also generating a steady inflow of funds, though the phenomenon has reached a «critical point of inflection.»

«We are no longer in the early adoption phase that characterized the last six to nine months, but we are also not close to the end,» the report indicates.

The DAT segment has transitioned to the «player versus player» stage—where success hinges on execution, differentiation, and timing rather than merely copying strategies. The scarcity premium that benefited early players has already vanished, Coinbase clarified.

Nevertheless, firms continue to accumulate digital assets. Bitcoin treasuries hold over 1 million BTC (more than 5% of total issuance).

Organizations focused on Ethereum have absorbed approximately 49 million ETH worth $213 billion, representing over 4% of the circulating supply.

«The DAT cycle has matured, yet it is neither too early nor too late. Certainly, the days of easy money and guaranteed mNAV premiums are over, as this PvP stage will favor only the most disciplined and strategically positioned players. We expect cryptocurrency markets to continue benefiting from an unprecedented influx of capital from these yield-enhancing instruments,» analysts concluded.

Seasonality remains a concern for the crypto industry, as historically, digital gold has dropped each September from 2017 to 2022, as highlighted by Coinbase.

However, this trend did not hold in 2023 and 2024. Analysts pointed out that the small sample size and wide range of possible outcomes limit the statistical significance of such seasonal indicators.

«On all frequency charts, logistic odds ratios, and when subjected to placebo testing, the conclusion is the same—the month of the year is not a statistically reliable predictor of whether BTC’s monthly return will be positive or negative,» the researchers concluded.

Recall that at JPMorgan, the decision to exclude Strategy from the S&P 500 was termed «a blow to crypto treasuries.»

At Galaxy Digital, the trend of forming companies with reserves in digital gold was compared to the investment trust bubble of the 1920s in the U.S.