Опционный рынок сигнализирует о возможной медвежьей смене тренда для биткоина English translation: Options market signals potential bearish trend shift for bitcoin

Some derivative metrics suggest a potential shift towards a bearish trend in the digital asset market, as analysts from CoinDesk have pointed out.

One such indicator is the 180-day imbalance between Bitcoin call options and put options, derived from trading data on Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency derivatives exchange.

At the time of writing, this metric stood at -0.42, marking its lowest level since June 2023, according to Amberdata. A negative imbalance indicates that traders are favoring put options, which often serve as a hedge against declining prices. This situation can be interpreted as a sign of caution among market participants or an increase in bearish sentiment over the medium term.

Imran Lakhia, the founder of Options Insights, believes that a focus on puts is often viewed as a shift in «market regime.»

A negative reading can signify a trend reversal: for two consecutive years, this indicator remained in the «green zone,» suggesting a dominance of bullish call options.

Bitcoin has decreased by approximately 9% from its all-time high of over $124,000, recorded about a week ago. However, the «long-term» sentiment among investors has already shifted towards «bearish territory.»

Lakhia noted that the emphasis on puts has become more pronounced amid the price correction.

«Bitcoin is not displaying any premium on call options until March 2026. The price drop has triggered purchases of August and September puts with a strike price around $110,000. Calls and spreads are being sold off as long positions reduce risk ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday,» the expert commented.

Most market participants expect the monetary regulator to signal the start of policy easing in September. If these expectations are confirmed, a correction may be on the horizon, noted analyst Nikolaj Sondergaard from Nansen.

«At this stage, the market as a whole anticipates rate cuts, and this is largely already priced in. If Powell delivers the anticipated signal, crypto may enter a range-bound period or see a slight decline—a classic ‘sell the news’ dynamic. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve indicates a more aggressive or rapid rate-cutting cycle than expected, it could stimulate new risk appetite and lay the groundwork for the next bullish impulse,» the analyst shared his thoughts.

According to Greeks.live, options expired on August 22:

Thus, short-term contracts based on the leading cryptocurrency suggest bearish sentiment, while Ethereum proponents are more optimistic.

«The options market shows divergence, but the factors indicating future volatility still prevail,» analysts from Greeks.live explained.

Another signal pointing towards a potential bearish trend was given by the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.

Developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, this tool is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength. It is based on analyzing ranges or bands created by short-term and long-term moving averages (MA).

In the chart above, it’s visible that the price of Bitcoin has dropped below the cluster of MAs. This indicates a weakening of bullish positions, a possible long-term shift in sentiment to bearish, a likely increase in selling pressure, and consequently, the risk of significant price drops.

Let us remind you that Capriole’s founder, Charles Edwards, has suggested the possibility of a large-scale Bitcoin sell-off due to declining demand from corporations.