Неопределенность на крипторынке: биткоин под давлением розничных инвесторов Translation: Uncertainty in the Crypto Market: Bitcoin Under Pressure from Retail Investors

The decline in whale activity combined with the dominance of retail investors is exerting pressure on the price of the leading cryptocurrency. An analyst from CryptoQuant, operating under the alias EgyHash, has not ruled out the possibility of continued sideways movement or further correction.

Major players are still accumulating digital gold, yet the asset’s price remains trapped in a narrow range. The primary cause is a shift in the dynamics of the futures market, which acts as a “key driver for Bitcoin.”

According to the expert, the average order size indicates a rising influence of retail trades. This metric is calculated by dividing the total trading volume by the number of transactions.

“The visualization of cryptocurrency turnover distribution further confirms this trend, reflecting a transition in the market to a consolidation phase characterized by a decrease in trading activity,” he added.

The CVD indicator over the past 90 days shows seller dominance, indicating bearish sentiment among futures market participants regarding the future performance of digital gold.

EgyHash emphasized that without a resurgence of whale activity and increased demand from large players, Bitcoin’s price is likely to either maintain a sideways trend or face additional selling pressure.

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $112,700. Over the past 24 hours, its price has risen by 0.5%, and by 2.2% over the week.

Bitcoin’s recovery above $112,000 after dipping to $108,000 has not been enough to restore traders’ confidence. Investors are uncertain about the sustainability of this move, as noted by Cointelegraph.

Market participants are trying to identify the barriers to improved sentiment and whether the cryptocurrency has the momentum to break above $120,000.

In the options sector, there is heightened demand for protective instruments, indicating an increased appetite for neutral-bearish strategies. Many anticipate a correction for digital gold below $108,000. However, this could also be a response to the volatility observed last week.

Part of the caution can be attributed to Bitcoin’s inability to match the records set by the S&P 500 and gold. Additionally, weak U.S. employment data has heightened expectations for a loosening of monetary policy by the Fed.

At the time of writing, traders are assessing the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting on September 17 at 100%.

Analysts believe that a positive decision from the regulator could trigger a rally in cryptocurrencies in the upcoming quarter.

Investor caution is exacerbated by ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week, these instruments attracted $368 million, significantly lower than figures from previous months where weekly totals consistently exceeded $1 billion.

Companies and exchange-traded funds have begun to accumulate more Ethereum, which may also negatively impact investor sentiment towards digital gold.

Analysts from Glassnode noted a recovery in Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics. They reported that the number of active addresses has returned to previous ranges, indicating some revival.

However, transaction volumes have decreased alongside fees, suggesting the absence of significant excitement.

Experts also observed that investors are acting cautiously: there is a modest inflow of capital, but long-term confidence remains lacking. Most participants are locking in modest profits.

“Overall, the market is showing fragile stabilization above the acquisition level of short-term holders. Improvements in momentum and profitability are offset by declining trading volumes and a wait-and-see position. Sentiment is somewhat pessimistic, but short-term spikes may occur if demand resurfaces,” they summarized.

Analyst BitBull emphasized that “Bitcoin has one last powerful surge left.”

“The chart is forming a pattern that exactly mirrors the models of 2023 and 2024, which led to significant breakouts. This time, market capitalization is higher, so the increase won’t be in the range of 200-300%,” he noted.

He predicted that by November to December, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could rise by 40-50% from current levels “before the final peak.”

Crypto trader Hardy believes that after breaking $112,000, the next target for digital gold will be $116,000.

MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe pointed out that Bitcoin has broken through the 20-day moving average. He believes the cryptocurrency may follow gold, which continues to set historical highs.

Lastly, analysts have suggested that volatility may occur in the crypto market ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic data releases in the U.S.