Наступает ли предвестие волатильности для биткоина? Translation: Is a Volatility Precursor on the Horizon for Bitcoin?

The implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, according to analysts at XWIN Research.

A similar scenario previously signaled a price surge from $29,000 to all-time highs. Blockchain data suggests this may be a «calm before the storm,» experts believe.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline, nearing multi-year lows. This trend indicates a reduction in the number of coins available for immediate sale. Historically, decreases in reserves have led to supply shortages during sharp demand increases, the specialists emphasized.

The MVRV ratio is currently in a neutral zone, around 2.1. Analysts at XWIN Research noted that investors currently lack a strong incentive for panic selling or mass profit-taking.

Funding rates on major exchanges remain moderate, reflecting that derivative market traders are not opening high-leverage long or short positions.

CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno pointed out a brief surge in Bitcoin inflow to exchanges, reaching up to 5,000 BTC per hour.

His colleague Axel Adler considers that the market dynamics have shifted in favor of bears.

He believes that the current price rebounds are merely «correction rallies» rather than the beginning of a new trend.

According to data from Glassnode, inflows into American spot Bitcoin ETFs slowed down after a robust start in September, with the latest sessions indicating slight outflows. This may signify a pause in institutional demand.

Analysts also noted that long-term holders have already realized a historically significant volume of profits—3.4 million BTC since the peak of the cycle.

For the Ethereum market, a key support level may emerge at $2,900. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmechi stated that this represents the average purchase price of the second largest cryptocurrency for «accumulation addresses.»

The total balance in such wallets has reached 27.6 million ETH. In the event of a severe correction, the mentioned level could provide substantial support for the price.

Adding further pressure to the Ethereum market is the upcoming expiration of options valued at $5.5 billion. The «maximum pain» point for this event stands at $3,700—a level at which holders will incur the greatest losses.

The put-to-call ratio is at 0.76, indicating moderately bearish sentiment. The large volume suggests significant interest from traders and expectations of increased volatility as the expiration date approaches.

It is worth recalling that on September 23, an analyst under the pseudonym Mr. Anderson also noted that the volatility of digital gold has reached a historical low.