МВФ: Стейблкоины могут стать катализатором долларизации и финансовых рисков в нестабильных экономиках Translation: IMF: Stablecoins May Become Catalysts for Dollarization and Financial Risks in Unstable Economies

Tethered to the US dollar, “stablecoins” may accelerate the process of dollarization in countries facing high inflation, undermining central banks’ control over capital flows. This is highlighted in a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Experts believe that stablecoins have the potential to hasten the abandonment of national currencies by both citizens and businesses in economically unstable nations.

*“Stablecoins may expedite dollarization, increase the volatility of capital flows by circumventing established restrictions, and fragment payment systems into isolated segments if their technical compatibility is not ensured,”* the document states.

The risk is particularly pronounced in countries experiencing a crisis of confidence in their local financial systems. In such situations, fiat-linked digital assets can rapidly shift from being a means of payment to a full-fledged alternative to the national currency.

This warning comes at a time when the stablecoin sector is experiencing significant growth. The authors of the report noted that since 2023, the market capitalization of the two largest coins—USDT and USDC—has tripled, reaching a combined total of $260 billion.

Trading volume soared to $23 trillion in 2024.

The use of stablecoins is geographically uneven, with Asia emerging as the absolute leader in transaction volume.

However, in terms of economic size, these assets are most actively utilized in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America—regions historically prone to dollarization and the replacement of national currencies.

The IMF also recognized the positive potential of the technology. In many developing countries, digital services are being adopted faster than traditional banking.

Analysts believe that with proper regulation, stablecoins can:

Nevertheless, these advantages are accompanied by macro-financial risks. The main threat comes from the possibility of mass exodus from these assets.

Users’ doubts about the backing of stablecoins could trigger a cascade of sell-offs. To meet obligations, companies may be forced to urgently liquidate their assets (often government bonds), which could lead to turmoil in global financial markets.

The pseudonymous cross-border nature of stablecoins may also weaken capital movement controls, facilitate illicit financing, and impair the quality of macroeconomic data. The global distribution of holders, often obscured by non-custodial wallets, complicates crisis monitoring and the development of regulatory responses.

Regulation of the sector is becoming clearer but remains inconsistent. In the report, IMF experts compared approaches in Japan, the US, the EU, and the UK, identifying differences in nearly all areas—from issuer and reserve requirements to the admission of foreign players.

Such fragmentation fosters regulatory arbitrage, where companies choose jurisdictions with the most lenient rules. This creates unfair competition and reduces the effectiveness of oversight in the sector.

The Fund stated that stablecoins are “a phenomenon that is here to stay.” However, whether they will be a source of stability or a risk factor directly depends on the global community’s ability to develop unified standards.

It is worth noting that in late November, the Bank for International Settlements warned about financial risks related to real-world assets (RWA).