Крипторынок на грани: эксперты K33 определили $60 000 как возможный минимум для биткоина Translation: Crypto market on the edge: K33 experts identify $60,000 as a potential bottom for Bitcoin.

The decline of bitcoin to the $60,000 mark may represent a local bottom. K33 Research analysts have identified signs of investor capitulation across the spot market, the ETF sector, and derivatives.

Vetle Lunde, the head of the research department, pointed out several market anomalies:

Momentum indicators are also indicating extreme oversold conditions. Following prolonged selling since January 20, the daily relative strength index (RSI) fell to 15.9. This marks the sixth-deepest reading since 2015, with values dropping lower only during market crashes in March 2020 and November 2018.

The fear and greed index dropped to 6 points during the sell-off, marking the second-lowest value in its history. This highlights the extent of investor pessimism amid bitcoin’s movement toward the $60,000 level.

Lunde observed that historically, similar episodes have coincided with cyclical lows, supporting the hypothesis that the recent correction has completed the formation of a local bottom.

The price movements were accompanied by «hyperactive trading,» Lunde noted. By February 6, the two-day volume of spot transactions for digital gold reached $32 billion, one of the highest levels in history.

Trading figures for February 5 and 6 remained in the 95th percentile range. According to the report, such intense trading intensity has been observed only once in the last five years—during the collapse of the FTX exchange.

The analyst remarked that such spikes often indicate the passage of local extremes, typically followed by a consolidation period and retest of the lows.

Tensions persist in the derivatives market. On February 6, the annual funding rate for perpetual bitcoin swaps fell to -15.46%, its lowest since the banking crisis in March 2023. The average weekly rate dipped to -3.5%, setting a new low since September 2024.

The skew indicator in the options market shifted into the «extremely protective zone.» According to Lunde, similar values were previously recorded only during the collapse of Terra, the liquidation of 3AC, and the bankruptcy of FTX.

American spot bitcoin ETFs also demonstrated record activity. On February 5, the trading volume for IBIT exceeded $10 billion, setting a historical high.

However, on the same day, the funds experienced the fifth-largest net outflow of funds since their inception. Despite inflows in the following days, a total of 13,670 BTC had been withdrawn from products since February 3.

K33 anticipates an extended price consolidation within the $60,000 to $75,000 range.

Experts also predict a decrease in trading activity and allow for a retest of support but do not see fundamental reasons for prices to fall below the local minimum.

It’s worth noting that Glassnode analysts recently referred to the current decline of the first cryptocurrency as «moderate.»