Краткосрочные держатели биткоина: на грани капитуляции из-за цены ниже уровня входа Translation: Headline: Short-term Bitcoin Holders: On the Brink of Capitulation Due to Prices Below Entry Level

New investors in the first cryptocurrency are experiencing losses, as the asset has been trading below their average entry price for over a month. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman.

The realized price for short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH), who entered the market over the past 155 days, stands at $104,000. Since October 30, the price of digital gold has remained relatively stable around $90,000, putting continuous pressure on this group of investors.

«STH are highly sensitive to price movements and often dictate short-term market dynamics, making their behavior particularly significant in the current context,» the expert explained.

The profitability of new investors is assessed using the MVRV indicator, which measures unrealized profits or losses by comparing the current price with the average acquisition cost. When this metric falls below 1, it indicates that STH are incurring losses. Currently, the reading fluctuates between 0.8 and 0.9.

The average loss amounts to approximately -12.6%. Aleman noted that this indicates an active capitulation process rather than passive accumulation.

«Historically, prolonged periods when STH are at a loss tend to coincide with phases of purging ‘weak hands’ and a transition of supply to holders with stronger conviction,» he pointed out.

As long as Bitcoin cannot establish itself above the critical level for short-term holders, market conditions will remain challenging for new investors.

The current structure aligns more with a transitional phase than the onset of a full-blown bear market, the analyst concluded.

Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin investors (LTH) continue to actively distribute their assets, according to analysts at Swissblock.

They observed that during the next attempt to test the key resistance zone of $93,000-$95,000, a new wave of selling pressure is expected.

According to Glassnode, since July, this group of Bitcoin holders has reduced their holdings by approximately 500,000 BTC, bringing their share of the total supply down to 71.92% — the lowest level since April.

In the past 30 days, LTH reserves have decreased by 761,000 BTC, according to CryptoQuant.

Such behavior historically correlates with late-stage market cycles and profit-taking ahead of potential peaks, corroborating Aleman’s findings based on STH behavior.

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading around $86,900.

Data on unemployment and the US business activity index is expected to be released on December 16. Analyst Michael van de Poppe referred to this day as «significant for the markets,» including the cryptocurrency one.

According to his analysis, digital gold needs to break the $88,000 level to continue its upward trajectory.

If it crosses the $90,000 area, a rally to the range of $92,000-$94,000 is possible, he believes. This would enhance the chances of a surge towards $100,000.

«However, if $90,000 remains a point of resistance, there is a likelihood of a significant decline,» van de Poppe added.