Каико: биткойн вступил в критическую фазу медвежьего рынка Translation: Kaiko: Bitcoin Enters Critical Phase of Bear Market

The decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency in early February, following a test of $60,000, indicates that the market is in the midst of a bear phase. This perspective was shared by analysts at Kaiko.

They noted that the 32% correction is the most significant drop since the last halving event in April 2024.

«An analysis of on-chain metrics and a comparative performance of tokens suggest that the market is nearing critical levels of technical support, which will determine whether the four-year cycle remains intact,» they added.

The experts identified several indicators that confirm the bear market phase:

They also highlighted an increase in the share of stablecoins, which saw a net inflow of approximately $22 billion over the last three weeks. Historically, capital tends to accumulate in pegged tokens during downturns and returns to riskier assets during recoveries.

The analysts compared the current situation to the market decline in 2022. At that time, the dominance of stablecoins peaked at 11.5%, after which a reversal occurred as cryptocurrencies bottomed out in the fourth quarter.

«The current level at 10.3% suggests we are approaching a maximum defensive position, but we may not have reached it yet. A key signal to watch for would be the stabilization or decline in stablecoin dominance, which would indicate the start of capital redistribution as a necessary condition for sustainable recovery,» stated the experts.

Kaiko noted that Bitcoin’s 52% correction from its all-time high has been «unusually shallow.» A plunge of 60-68% would be more in line with historical trends, suggesting a minimum price in the $40,000-50,000 range.

Sean Young, the chief analyst at MEXC Research, confirmed in a comment to Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has returned to its historical four-year cycle related to halvings since the start of the year. However, he believes that gauging the depth of the current bear market is challenging, as «many catalysts that fueled the rally to $126,000 are still in play.»

«Given the emergence of oversold indicators across multiple timeframes, discussions about Bitcoin’s recovery are more a matter of time than probability,» Young added.

The $60,000 level roughly coincides with the 200-week moving average price of Bitcoin, which has historically served as a strong long-term support, noted Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergaard. He pointed out that in the absence of cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, market volatility is likely to persist.

«Yet it’s still very difficult to ascertain whether this signifies a return to a traditional four-year cycle. I’ve seen many prominent figures advocate this idea, but at the same time, several others disagree,» the analyst remarked.

It is worth remembering that experts have expressed differing opinions regarding Ethereum’s price bottom in the current bear market.