Долгосрочные держатели биткоина достигли исторического минимума запасов, но рынок показывает признаки стабилизации Translation: Headline: Long-term Bitcoin holders hit historical low in holdings, but the market shows signs of stabilization.

On November 21, the supply of the first cryptocurrency among long-term holders (LTH) hit a cyclical low. On the same day, the asset’s price found its bottom at around $82,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91,660 (+2.9% over the past day).

The data suggest that the spot sell-offs, which have constrained market growth throughout 2025, are coming to an end. The correction from the peak to the trough amounted to 36%. The stabilization of the LTH metric and the trend reversal indicate a significant decrease in selling pressure.

From July to November, reserves held by long-term investors decreased from 14.77 million BTC to 14.33 million BTC. This category includes addresses that have held coins for more than 155 days.

Previous lows for this metric were recorded in April 2024 after a historical price peak and in March 2025 amid concerns over tariffs.

During the cycles of 2017 and 2021, LTH supply sharply declined amid retail frenzy. The current situation features a smoother asset distribution without drastic fluctuations. The change in market participants’ behavior raises questions about the relevance of the classic four-year cycle theory.

Analyst Axel Adler pointed out the divergence in technical indicators of digital gold. He noted that despite the global bullish structure remaining intact, the short-term momentum of the first cryptocurrency is weakening.

The Bull-index has risen to 23%, while its «fast» counterpart has dropped to 18%. This divergence (FAST < SLOW) indicates potential challenges for buyers. The current divergence stands at -5.28 points, marking the first such signal since the beginning of the month. According to the expert, this scenario implies that short-term growth drivers (financing rates, taker imbalances, inflows into ETFs) have weakened more rapidly than the medium-term market structure. Historically, such divergences have preceded corrections or prolonged consolidation periods. The situation is exacerbated by expectations of a Federal Reserve meeting in December. The market is pricing in an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. Any deviation from this scenario risks pushing the "fast" index below zero. Conversely, a dovish stance from the regulator could return the metrics to the +25–30% zone. Adler described the current market as "tactically fragile." He suggested that a prudent strategy would be to avoid increasing risks while maintaining core long positions. The weakening of the fast component of the index serves as an initial warning of potential burnout of the local momentum and the risks of a regime shift in the market. An analyst under the pseudonym Mister Crypto focused on the sentiment of market participants. He noted a state of "extreme fear" in the cryptocurrency market, which, in his opinion, may indicate the formation of a local bottom. It is worth recalling that in December, an expert under the nickname Daan Crypto highlighted a key support level ahead of a potential Bitcoin correction to $76,000.