Давление PIPE-сделок может привести к резким падениям акций казначейских компаний Pressure from PIPE Deals Could Cause Sharp Declines in Treasury Company Stocks

Companies raising capital through private placements of stock may face a decline in share prices due to potential large sell-offs.

Researchers have noted that firms issuing new securities through the Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) often experience significant downturns: over time, their stock prices tend to revert to the initial placement price. In certain instances, declines can reach as much as 50% as investors exit the lock-up period and prepare to sell.

PIPE transactions enable market participants to purchase shares at prices lower than the market value and provide companies with swift access to liquidity. This mechanism has gained traction in the crypto industry as a way to attract capital in a competitive environment.

However, as highlighted by CryptoQuant, such placements dilute the stakes of existing shareholders. Additionally, they create a supply overhang that exerts downward pressure on the stock prices.

An analysis of the share prices of several Bitcoin-focused companies revealed that significant declines often occur right after the unlocking of PIPE shares. For example, shares of Kindly MD (NAKA), which transitioned from a medical to a «treasury» company, plummeted by more than half just a day after restrictions on sales were lifted. Prior to this, the stock had surged from $1.8 to nearly $35 in anticipation of the deal, only to subsequently crash by 97% to $1.16, almost reaching the PIPE price of $1.12.

Strive Inc. (ASST) has seen its shares fall by 78% since May, dropping from $13 to $2.75. The company’s PIPE round was priced at $1.35, suggesting a potential further decline of about 55% following the opening of sales next month.

A similar scenario is evident with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), which is merging with Twenty One Capital. Its PIPE round was priced at $10, and shares have lost nearly 70% from their peak value. This indicates a risk of further decline, possibly down to half of the current valuation.

CryptoQuant and other analysts indicate that even large «treasury» companies are feeling the pressure as the value of their crypto assets gradually approaches their market capitalization. In this context, only a sustained increase in the price of digital gold can prevent stock prices from dropping to PIPE levels or even lower.

It’s worth noting that CryptoQuant analysts had already warned about a significant slowdown in the growth of corporate Bitcoin reserves.