Готовьтесь к волатильности: биткоин может упасть на 70% в новом медвежьем цикле, предупреждает аналитик Headline: Brace for Volatility: Bitcoin Could Drop 70% in New Bear Cycle, Analyst Warns

The original cryptocurrency may experience a decline of up to 70% during the upcoming bearish market phase. This perspective was shared by ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.

According to him, historical data suggests a potential correction. In previous cycles, the price of digital gold has dropped by 94%, 87%, and 77% from its peak.

«I would say that a 70% decrease from the absolute maximum Bitcoin could reach is possible. Is it guaranteed to happen? No, but historical lessons indicate that it’s a probability worth considering,» Cowen stated.

The most recent all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was recorded at $124,128, achieved on August 14. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $116,900.

Researcher Axel Adler Jr. assessed the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high (ATH) in the next two weeks at 70%. He highlighted the balanced sentiment among investors.

The expert noted that the MVRV for short-term holders is hovering near zero. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency is trading above the realized value for this group of market participants. This situation suggests a consolidation phase lasting one to two weeks before a «new breakout to ATH.»

The growth potential is supported by derivatives data. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium to spot prices. The seven-day average exceeds the thirty-day average—this structure is typically associated with bullish trends.

«The base scenario (~70%) for the next two weeks: a stepwise upward trend or sideways movement. If a cluster of green trend confirmation signals appears in the next few days, it will indicate an influx of new long positions and increase the likelihood of reaching a new all-time high,» Adler Jr. wrote.

According to Glassnode, the heat map for Bitcoin shows a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts have labeled this level as a critical resistance zone.

Surpassing this mark would serve as a signal for further growth and potentially new highs, experts noted. Otherwise, Bitcoin could face prolonged consolidation or compression.

Glassnode also indicated positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring institutional demand as a key support factor for the market.

As of September 18, these instruments attracted $163 million, bringing the total investment over four trading sessions to $664 million. Last week, the overall influx exceeded $2.3 billion—a peak since mid-July.

CryptoQuant analysts pointed out the rise in reserves of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the Coinbase exchange, with the figure reaching $112 billion for the first time in four years.

«In past cycles, an increase in reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase often coincided with enhanced market liquidity and bullish price momentum,» the experts emphasized.

As a reminder, macroanalyst Luke Gromen explained the philosophy of Bitcoin as digital gold. According to him, the key advantage of the cryptocurrency is its lack of yield.