«Готовы к буре на рынке биткойнов? Аналитики предсказывают рост волатильности» English translation: Ready for a Storm in the Bitcoin Market? Analysts Predict Increase in Volatility

The volatility of digital gold has hit a historical low. The weekly Bollinger Bands have contracted to an unprecedentedly narrow range, as noted by the analyst known as Mr. Anderson.

He further remarked that once expansion begins, the price of the leading cryptocurrency typically tests the outer boundaries of the bands swiftly.

Another analyst operating under the pseudonym Frank highlighted that the monthly implied volatility of Bitcoin hovers near historical lows at about 30.9%.

He drew a comparison to the «summer of stablecoins» in 2023, during which the price of the leading cryptocurrency remained in a sideways range between $26,000 and $29,000 for an extended period.

CoinW’s strategy director, Nassar Achkar, concurred, describing the current situation as «the calm before the storm.» He believes that negative funding rates, seasonal trends, and the influx of funds into institutional ETFs tilt the odds in favor of an uptrend.

“Such significant compression rarely occurs without consequence,” noted Langerius, founder of Hunters of Web3.

Conversely, researcher Glassnode, under the pseudonym CryptoVizArt, holds a different viewpoint. He stated that the overall volatility is decreasing because Bitcoin is becoming «larger» over time.

Thus, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands is merely an observation without real predictive value, the expert indicated.

Historically, strong contractions have been followed by increases. At the beginning of July, the bands were extremely narrow when the asset traded around $108,000. A few days later, volatility spiked, and the price of digital gold reached a new historical high above $122,000 by July 14.

CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, attributed the price decline to whale activity.

According to his data, since August 21, large holders have sold 147,000 BTC. The overall balance of whales is decreasing at the fastest monthly rates in the current cycle.

Other experts cite CoinGlass data showing that Bitcoin has increased in price in 10 of the last 12 Octobers and in eight of the last 12 fourth quarters.

It is worth noting that in September, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn identified a troubling signal: many key indicators of the bull market have turned bearish.

Later, Glassnode experts identified the break-even price for short-term holders as a crucial support level for digital gold.