Гарвардский экономист изменил мнение о биткоине, предсказав его рост до небес Translation: Harvard Economist Changes His Mind on Bitcoin, Predicting Soaring Growth

Harvard professor and former chief economist of the IMF, Kenneth Rogoff, acknowledged that his pessimistic forecast regarding Bitcoin turned out to be incorrect. In 2018, he claimed that the digital gold was more likely to fall to $100 than to reach $100,000.

He believed that stringent regulations in the United States would crash the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Rogoff did not foresee that a crypto-friendly administration would come to power in 2024.

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election in November, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark and achieved a new historical high of $124,128.

As of the time of writing, the crypto asset is trading at $113,620.

The economist also did not anticipate that Bitcoin would emerge as a competitor to fiat currencies within the global shadow economy valued at $20 trillion.

However, in 2024, the volume of illegal transactions involving digital assets reached $50 billion, which is less than 1% of the amounts laundered using cash.

«Thirdly, I did not expect that regulators, especially the leading one, would be able to hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies without consequence, despite the blatant conflict of interest,» added Rogoff.

Rogoff’s fundamental stance on cryptocurrencies has not shifted, yet industry representatives have perceived his statement as a victory. Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, pointed out that Rogoff failed to appreciate the potential of the technology.

«You missed something: you couldn’t imagine that a decentralized project, drawing its strength from people rather than centralized institutions, could succeed on a large scale,» he wrote.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, sarcastically noted that Rogoff had disabled comments on his Bitcoin post.

«Perhaps you didn’t account for any of what you described because you live in an echo chamber — just like when you turned off comments. Fundamental factors matter: the devaluation of fiat currencies, the redistribution of wealth among generations, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset,» the expert stated.

Meanwhile, analyst David Lawant from FalconX expressed gratitude towards Rogoff, saying that his book, «The Curse of Cash,» was «so terrible that it became one of the reasons that pushed him towards Bitcoin.»

Recall that on August 9, two of the most prestigious universities in the U.S.—Harvard and Brown University—reported on their Bitcoin purchases through an ETF.