Венчурный инвестор предостерегает: биткоин может упасть на 70% в следующие 2 года Translation: Venture investor warns: bitcoin could drop by 70% in the next 2 years

The first cryptocurrency is expected to continue undergoing cyclical upswings and downturns, with a potential price drop of 65-70% in the next two years. This was stated by Vinny Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, in an interview with Cointelegraph.

«Even if the price drops to $70,000, Bitcoin will not lose its value, but the issue is that people fail to recognize this. When they invest in assets that are unfamiliar and unclear to them, their first instinct is to sell. This results in an influx of supply,» explained the head of the venture firm.

However, over a decade, Budki anticipates that the price of digital gold will surpass $1 million per coin. He believes that the adoption of cryptocurrency will grow due to the expansion of speculative trading and real-world use cases.

A number of experts argue that the historical four-year cycles of Bitcoin related to halvings have lost relevance under current conditions. The K33 company posits that the price movements of the coin are now largely determined by institutional investor activity and macroeconomic policies.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes sees the monetary policy of central banks as the dominant factor affecting Bitcoin’s dynamics. According to him, traders previously mistakenly linked the market cycles of the cryptocurrency to the reduction in block rewards.

Analysts from 10x Research noted that Bitcoin primarily reacts not even to macroeconomic data like liquidity. What matters most are the inflows specifically into cryptocurrencies, such as deposits into ETFs and other products.

The firm pointed out that contrary to expectations, the increase in the global M2 money supply did not consistently trigger rallies in the price of digital gold.

«Liquidity sets the tone. Inflows write the script. Once both trends converge, the movement will be sharp, and most will claim they didn’t see it coming,» stated the analysts.

For the first time in seven years, the leading cryptocurrency closed October with a decline in price, losing about 3.7% over the month. During the bearish market of 2018, it saw a similar decrease of around 3.8%.

Historically, November has been the most favorable month for Bitcoin, averaging an increase of about 42.5%.

«I truly believe that seasonal charts are significant, but they need to be considered alongside many other factors,» commented Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, to Cointelegraph.

On October 11, U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs against China triggered a market crash, resulting in record liquidations exceeding $19 billion. Following positive news regarding trade negotiations between the two countries, cryptocurrencies partially regained their positions.

A positive signal came from the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, experts believe it marked more of a pause in the «tariff war» rather than its conclusion. This was stated by Dennis Wilder, a professor and senior fellow at Georgetown University’s China Initiative, in an interview with CBC News.

On October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time, to 3.75-4%. Bitcoin reacted with caution to the regulator’s easing of monetary policy.

CryptoQuant suggested that if the central bank continues its trend in December, it could trigger a new rally for the cryptocurrency. However, in light of the cautious remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, traders currently assess the likelihood of a further rate cut by the agency at 63%.

It is worth noting that, should positive macroeconomic and geopolitical developments continue, Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $100,000, as forecasted by Standard Chartered.