Ведсон прогнозирует возможный кризис биткоина с падением до $50 000 к 2026 году Translation: Vedson predicts a potential Bitcoin crisis with a drop to $50,000 by 2026

By the beginning of 2026, the value of the first cryptocurrency might drop to $50,000, according to João Vedson, the founder of the analytical platform Alphractal. However, he has not ruled out a short-term increase of the asset to $140,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading at 10.6% below its all-time high of $124,128, which was reached on August 14. As of the time of writing, its price stands at $110,675.

Vedson noted that digital gold is nearing a moment that historically has coincided with the end of an uptrend and the start of a prolonged decline.

«Of course, it would be reckless to assume that Bitcoin has just over a month left in this cycle based solely on my chart. Nevertheless, I can’t shake the thought that it might just be enough for BTC to drop to the $100,000 mark before soaring above $140,000 in the same period. Who would dare to contest such a scenario?» the analyst wrote.

He acknowledged that the current situation differs from previous ones due to the influx of institutional investors and the new status of Bitcoin as a significant asset, comparable to stocks.

«The key question is whether this model will remain reliable amidst active speculation around ETFs and the growing demand from major players,» Vedson added.

A major risk is that a downturn in the crypto market could coincide with a recession in the United States.

The expert expressed doubts about the relevance of the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle theory under current conditions, highlighting increasing debates regarding its validity.

«Personally, I am eager to see if the new generation of crypto enthusiasts is right in claiming that previous patterns no longer apply, and that Bitcoin will now grow indefinitely, or if 2025 will be the last gasp before a sharp correction, potentially driving prices below $50,000 in the bear market of 2026,» he concluded.

Traders view the $100,000 level as a critical support point for Bitcoin. Analyst Killa believes that maintaining or breaching this level will determine the asset’s future trajectory: either hitting new highs or deepening the correction.

MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe expressed a similar perspective.

«The resistance has remained intact—breaking through it was unsuccessful, and the same goes for the 20-week EMA. If we don’t see a breakout, I expect a new low, and that’s where one should fully invest in altcoins,» he noted.

Investor Ted Pillows anticipates that in September, the first cryptocurrency will exhibit negative dynamics. He stated that a «powerful rally» will commence in the following quarter.

«The final market peak will likely occur in December 2025 or January 2026, just like in previous cycles,» the expert added.

It is noteworthy that at the beginning of September, Frank Fetter of Capital Management identified a rare signal indicating a potential bottom for Bitcoin’s price.