Биткоин на грани разворота: индекс страха снижается, эксперты ждут переломного момента Translation: Bitcoin on the brink of a turnaround: fear index drops as experts anticipate a turning point

Against the backdrop of the first cryptocurrency’s correction below $109,000, the fear and greed index has decreased from 44 to 28 points. Analyst Michael Pizzino described the current situation as a «turning point.»

The expert noted the developing divergence between Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment.

The last time the index fell below 30, digital gold was trading around $83,000. Just a few days prior, the asset’s price had broken a local low near $75,000.

In this context, Pizzino suggested that the current conditions might be favorable for a reversal.

«Could this be the moment that Bitcoin and the crypto market have been waiting for? The analysis appears convincing, but it’s not confirmed yet,» he added.

The Santiment platform recorded a surge in «buy the dip» mentions after the leading cryptocurrency dropped below $112,000 at the start of the week. Analysts posited that this could indicate a likelihood of a rebound, as prices often move in the opposite direction of community expectations.

«A negative narrative is forming on social media. After falling below $114,000, euphoria quickly turned into fear. However, the level of fear isn’t high enough yet to indicate a true market capitulation like that seen in early April (due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs) or mid-June (amid geopolitical tensions),» experts stated.

Santiment highlighted two «encouraging signals»:

According to analysts, these factors reduce selling pressure and limit further downside potential.

Meanwhile, Glassnode analysts predicted a deeper correction due to signs of «overheating.» They noted that in the current market cycle, long-term holders have sold 3.4 million BTC.

The share of profit-taking in the total volume of moved coins has exceeded the 90% mark three times, and the market has just passed the third such peak.

Historically, similar spikes have coincided with key cycle peaks, which increases the likelihood of an impending «cooling» phase, the experts noted.

They also pointed out a slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which previously offset sales by long-term holders.

During the last meeting of the Federal Reserve, the volume of realized coins soared to 122,000 BTC per month. Meanwhile, net inflows into exchange-traded funds fell from 2,600 BTC per day to nearly zero.

«The combination of rising selling pressure and weakening institutional demand has created a fragile market environment, setting the stage for decline,» Glassnode stated.

Marcus Thielen from 10 Research did not rule out a drop in the first cryptocurrency to levels around $107,000. Earlier, QCP analysts warned about the risk of Bitcoin falling to that threshold.

At the time of writing, the asset is trading at $109,500.

It is worth noting that analysts have diverged in their forecasts for digital gold.