Биткоин и золото: резкое обнуление корреляции как предвестник нового ралли Bitcoin and Gold: The Sharp Nullification of Correlation as a Harbinger of a New Rally

For the first time since mid-2022, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero. According to Cointelegraph analyst Yashu Gola, by the end of January, this indicator may even enter negative territory.

Historically, the decoupling of these assets has preceded a rally in the first cryptocurrency. In four similar instances, Bitcoin’s price rose by an average of 56% in the two months following such a signal.

The sole exception occurred in May 2021, when prices fell by 26% due to the mining ban in China and Tesla’s withdrawal from accepting digital assets.

Current macroeconomic conditions are conducive to growth. Global liquidity (M2 aggregate) is increasing, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is tapering its quantitative tightening policy.

Matt Hougan, head of research at Bitwise, stated:

*»Bull markets for Bitcoin coincide with periods of rising global liquidity. A new cycle of easing policy will act as a price catalyst until 2026.”*

In 2025, gold surged by 65%, while the first cryptocurrency experienced lackluster growth. However, Hougan believes that Bitcoin will reclaim its leadership in 2026.

He added that the low long-term correlation of the assets allows Bitcoin to enhance portfolio returns without the risks associated with «leveraging on gold.»

Analyst Thor Demestr confirmed that the acceleration of «money printing» continues to be the main driver of the market.

A trader using the pseudonym Midas noted the similarities between the current chart and the cycle of 2020-2021. He indicated that the price is emerging from an accumulation phase, similar to what occurred before the parabolic surge to $70,000.

In his opinion, a repeat of this scenario and the realization of the 56% growth potential could push Bitcoin into the $150,000 range.

Since the beginning of October, the open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures on the Binance exchange has dropped by more than 31%. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost referred to this as a sign of market recovery and decreased leverage.

On October 6, the indicator reached an all-time high, exceeding $15 billion. For comparison, at the peak of the bullish phase in November 2021, the open positions volume was only $5.7 billion. By 2025, traders’ interest in derivatives had nearly tripled.

Following this record, a correction brought the figure down to $10 billion—below the 180-day moving average. The decline was accompanied by a wave of liquidations.

According to the analyst, the current deleveraging phase is set to «heal the market»:

*»Historically, such periods have often indicated a bottom formation, effectively ‘resetting’ the market and laying the groundwork for future recovery.»*

Darkfost cautioned that the growth scenario is not guaranteed. If the price of Bitcoin continues to fall, open interest may drop even further, potentially signaling a deeper correction and a complete transition into a bearish phase.

Analysts have suggested that digital gold could surpass the psychologically significant level of $100,000 by the end of January.