Аномальная волатильность биткоина предвещает исторический прорыв Headline: Abnormal Bitcoin Volatility Signals a Historic Breakthrough

The Bollinger Bands (BB) on the monthly chart for the leading cryptocurrency have hit their lowest point in history, signaling «extreme» volatility. This observation was noted by technical analyst Matthew Hyland.

BB is a volatility indicator used to identify price extremes. When the indicator is near the upper line, it indicates overbought conditions, while proximity to the lower line suggests oversold conditions.

This unusual position of the metric has also been highlighted by other market participants.

«Historically, drops in the indicator to these lows have led to significant volatility. Bitcoin could be gearing up for a dramatic rally in Q4,» stated trader known as Crypto Caesar.

Investor Giannis Andreou added that all previous contractions of the Bollinger Bands in 2012, 2016, and 2020 preceded «explosive price increases» for the first cryptocurrency.

«The current situation is even more compressed, suggesting the potential for the most significant movement in Bitcoin’s history. The direction is uncertain, but trends indicate the continuation of the existing pattern,» emphasized the expert.

In his view, digital gold is likely to demonstrate a large movement over the next few months—either a breakthrough to new highs or a «shocking» reversal.

Despite the historical breach of the Bollinger Bands, the crypto market’s focus remains on the U.S. macro data and the actions of the Federal Reserve during its meeting on September 17.

On September 10, the U.S. reported negative producer inflation data, which facilitated Bitcoin’s return to $114,000. The consumer price index is set to be published on September 11.

Positive indicators are likely to sway the Fed towards lowering the key rate. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants see a 100% probability of this event—though opinions vary regarding the extent of the reduction.

92% expect a decrease of 25 basis points, while 8% foresee a 50 basis point cut.

«If a [50 basis points cut] occurs, cryptocurrency will soar beyond previous highs,» wrote a user named Mister Crypto.

However, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon places a very low probability on such a significant cut.

«I am almost certain that the U.S. will lower rates by 25 basis points. If we look at the labor market, there is no question that some easing can be observed,» he clarified.

Solomon anticipates potentially two more rate cuts this year, depending on the macroeconomic situation.

It’s noteworthy that analysts from Santiment have predicted a rebound for Bitcoin amid rising bearish sentiments.