Аналитики предупреждают о возможном медвежьем рынке для биткоина: снижение активности китов и интереса трейдеров Translation: Analysts Warn of Potential Bear Market for Bitcoin: Decrease in Whale Activity and Trader Interest

An on-chain analyst known as Woominkyu has suggested a scenario where the leading cryptocurrency may enter a bear phase. His conclusion is drawn from the behavior of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator (BCMI).

The decline of the metric to 0.5 in October, initially perceived as a temporary pause, has evolved into a negative trend. The weakening of Bitcoin, along with the decreasing values of the indicator, points to a loss of market momentum.

Currently, the BCMI is positioned below the equilibrium level, yet it remains significantly above historical bottom zones. In both 2019 and 2023, market reversals occurred within the range of 0.25 to 0.35.

The expert believes that the present situation resembles a transition to a downward trend more closely than a typical correction. For a stable bottom to form, the metric would need to drop to the lows observed in previous cycles.

In December, the volume of funds transferred by large investors to the Binance exchange halved. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym Darkfost.

According to the expert’s data, the monthly influx from whales fell from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion within just a few weeks.

Since Binance holds a leading position in exchange flows, the decrease in large players’ activity indicates a weakening of selling pressure. Fewer deposits mean a lower risk of immediate asset sales, which positively impacts the market’s short-term balance.

However, the overall downward trend does not rule out sporadic large transfers. Recently, the analyst noted a spike in deposits amounting to $466 million from holders with balances of 100 to 10,000 BTC. Of this, over $435 million was attributed to wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins.

Darkfost emphasized that tracking whale activities remains a priority, as significant one-off transactions can drastically increase volatility or trigger price corrections.

The number of trades involving perpetual Bitcoin contracts has sharply declined across all major exchanges. Analysts from Alphractal highlighted a shift in traders’ interest toward Ethereum.

From August to November, the activity of traders using leverage reached an unprecedented peak. On 19 platforms, including Hyperliquid and BitMEX, there were up to 80 million trades per day.

The trend has shifted now, with the seven-day moving average dropping to 13 million transactions. This stark reduction indicates a widespread contraction of leveraged positions in Bitcoin.

It’s worth noting that on December 23, exchange-traded funds based on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization recorded total outflows of $284.1 million.